Foto av statsminister Erna Solberg og finansminister Siv Jensen

Ap fram, men fortsatt borgerlig flertall

Regjeringspartiene går tilbake og Ap år fram på VGs partibarometer for desember.

Hver gang det kommer en ny meningsmåling, så henter avisene fram sine store bokstaver. Selv de minste forandringene omtales som om det skulle ha vært en kjempemessig endring i folks politiske sympatier. Men stort sett pleier forskjellene mellom meningsmålingene å være for små til å si noe som helst.

VG får meningsmålingene utført av et firma som heter InFact Norge AS. Det er flere forskjellige firma som utfører meningsmålinger.

På meningsmålingen for desember, fikk partiene følgende oppslutning:

Parti Oppslutning Endring siden siste måling
Ap 35,3% 1,9%
Frp 14,3% -0,6%
Høyre 25,8% -0,6%
KrF 5,1% -1,0%
Venstre 4,1% -0,1%
Sp 4,8% 0,1%
SV 4,0% -0,1%
Rødt 1,4% 0,2%
MDG 3,4% 0,3%
Andre 1,3% 0,1%

Ap synes å gå mye fram, mens regjeringspartiene Høyre og Frp har tilsammen en tilbakegang på 1,2%. Men meningsmålingen gir ingen grunn for Jens Stoltenberg til å glede seg for mye. Det kan utmerket godt være at endringene som vises i meningsmålingen først og fremst er et resultat av at en ikke har spurt alle med stemmerett. Betrakter vi usikkerheten ved at en bare har spurt et utvalg stemmeberettigede, kan en med stor sikkerhet regne med at partienes oppslutning blant de stemmeberettigede er i følgende intervaller:

Parti Fra (korrigert for usikkerhet) Til (korrigert for usikkerhet)
Ap 33,2% 37,4%
Frp 12,7% 15,9%
Høyre 23,8% 27,8%
KrF 4,1% 6,1%
Venstre 3,7% 5,5%
Sp 3,8% 5,8%
SV 3,1% 4,9%
Rødt 0,9% 1,9%
MDG 2,6% 4,2%
Andre 0,8% 1,8%

Usikkerheten er såpass stor og endringene er såpass små at det er vanskelig å se at det har vært så veldig store endringer.

Ser vi på de ulike politiske blokkene, får vi et litt annet bilde. Fra resultatene i VG sin meningsmåling, finner vi:

Partiblokk Oppslutning Fra (korrigert for usikkerhet) Til (korrigert for usikkerhet) Sannsynlighet for over 50% oppslutning
H+Frp 40,1% 37,9% 42,3% 0,0%
H+Frp+KrF+V 49,8% 47,6% 52,0% 42,9%
Ap+Sp+SV 44,1% 41,9% 46,3% 0,0%

Med tanke på stortingsvalget er det først og fremst oppslutningen til partiene som kommer inn på Stortinget som er av interesse. Basert på meningsmålingen fra VG, er det ingen grunn til å tro at partiet Rødt eller noen av partiene som inngår i "Andre" ville fått noen stortingsrepresentanter. Spørsmålet er om MDG ville kommet inn på Stortinget. Hvis heller ikke MDG kom inn på Stortinget, ville meningsmålingen i VG gitt følgende oppslutning om partiblokkene:

Partiblokk Oppslutning Fra (korrigert for usikkerhet) Til (korrigert for usikkerhet) Sannsynlighet for over 50% oppslutning
H+Frp 42,7% 40,5% 44,8% 0,00%
H+Frp+KrF+V 53,0% 50,8% 55,3% 99,7%
Ap+Sp+SV 47,0% 44,7% 49,2% 0,03%

Lite dramatisk synes å ha skjedd med partienes oppslutning siden høstens stortingsvalg. Både Erna og Siv kan slappe av i juleferien, ikke noe tyder på vesentlige endringer i oppslutningen og de ulike politiske blokkene.

Jens Petter Gitlesen

26 desember 2013

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